Although Trump has been a wildly unpopular President for most of his term so far and his administration has been rocked by one scandal after another, recent studies STILL show that he has a good chance at winning another term in the 2020 presidential election.
Over the last 50 years, only two presidents seeking reelection—Carter and Bush 41—failed to secure a second term. Presidents Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush 43, and Obama all won reelection even though two of those were plagued with controversy. In fact, it seems that the most controversial presidents tend to end up with the largest reelection victories.
One other important statistic to consider when looking toward a reelection possibility is approval rating. In a recent Gallup poll, President Trump had about a 45% approval rating- the same that President Obama had at this point in his presidency and obviously he won the reelection in 2012.
A similar comparison can be drawn to around mid-April in 1995, around the same time in President Clinton’s presidency, when his approval rating was 46% and he also won the reelection.
Trump also has a huge fundraising advantage going forward as well, having already raised $30 million this year. Democrats, however, are having to split funds from party supporters across a huge – and growing – field of candidates hoping to secure the nomination and ultimately battle Trump in 2020. For instance, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, two top Democratic contenders, have raised $18.2 million and $12 million, respectively, in the same amount of time.
Even amid one tumultuous headline after the next, Americans generally approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. In fact, in a CNN poll from last month, 71% said the economy was in good shape. This is all good news for Trump as historical data shows that when people feel the economy is strong, they tend to vote to reelect the sitting President.
Many polls and studies have come in this year on Trump’s approval rating and one in particular, the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service “Battleground Poll” found that 58% of registered voters were likely to vote for him again.
That number is important because that same poll found a majority of voters also saying they disapproved of Trump’s performance and that the country was on the “wrong track”. This goes to show just how strong his support is among the Republican Party and just how loyal they are willing to be.