The financial firm Moody’s Analytics has released its official prediction that President Donald Trump will not only be victorious in the 2020 presidential election but that he will win by a landslide, largely due to the current economic climate.
Moody’s has a strong and reliable history forecasting US elections minus the slip up of the 2016 presidential election, which took everyone by surprise with never before seen voting patterns and thus began the Trump era of MANY unpredictable happenings.
Moody’s looks at data from every state and uses three separate models to determine how a state will vote.
- Pocketbook Model – how consumers feel about their own finances.
- Stock Market Model – gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s term.
- Unemployment Model – which has fallen to it’s lowest rated in 50 years.
Not even taking presidential candidate’s policies into consideration, Moody predicts that on the above three determining factors alone, Trump will garner enough electoral votes not only to win this election, but to win in a LANDSLIDE.
Moody’s Head of Fiscal Policy Research, Dan White, appeared on CNN recently and along with explaining the factors mentioned above, he explained further, with some shocking truths that may be hard for some to hear. White said,
The bottom line is, it doesn’t look like the economy can fall quickly enough to turn this election towards Democrats.”-Dan White, Moody Analytic’s Head of Fiscal Policy Research
White pointed out that Moody looks at state level demographics, factors like what differing gas prices might mean to American voters in different states, taking the obvious fact that things like that hit voters in California different than they might hit folks from North Dakota. White also says that being able to analyze this type of detail, particularly while looking at the effects of the current economy on each state really gives them more insight into exactly how things might go in this presidential election.
White says Moody is specifically zeroing in on states that Trump won for the first time in 2016- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan- stating that the economy is doing very well in those states and that alone may be enough to tip a marginal or undecided voter in Trump’s direction.
When asked about Moody’s miss in the 2016 presidential election, White chalks it up to alarmingly different voting patterns, the likes of which had rarely been seen before. He says, in fact, he is so sure of the prediction in the 2020 election, that the ONLY way Dems have a plausible shot at the White House this time, barring some massive shock to the economy or to politics in general, is if Democrats see some record shattering, mind blowing voter turnout of their own.
White was asked about Trump’s “Maverick” factor, even his “abhorrent” factor and he admitted that yes, they’ve had to consider the “type” of president they’re dealing with here and also that NOW the US is 4 years in to seeing Trump’s peculiar and unpredictable way of policy making and governing.
White seemed in awe, fascinated by Americans’ take on Trump, he said it’s hard to understand how other presidents’ approval ratings would swing far and wide at any given point on any given day but that Trump’s approval rating, though admittedly lower than previous presidents’, has remained largely unmoved. White said,
“It’s very difficult to convince somebody who’s a strong Donald Trump supporter to not be a Donald Trump supporter.”Dan White
And therein lies the rub for Dems hopeful to swing this cycle back to their favor. The 5-10% of voters who are undecided are LIKELY to be STRONGLY affected by the economy and with the economy looking good well into 2020? Well, it’s looking even better for Trump and those that follow him.